Thursday, June 4, 2009

Juan Manuel Marquez Vs Floyd Mayweather Jr. Fight Analysis

By James P. Dayap

On May 1st, 2009, we all received the news that Floyd Mayweather Jr. was coming out of retirement, to fight lightweight champion, Juan Manuel Marquez for a July 18th bout. Mayweather, at the time of his retirement, claimed he had nothing else to prove, being at the top and undefeated. With open challenges from Sugar Shane Mosley and other welterweights, Floyd left the game.

But back to the present, Marquez, a fighter reigning at 135 pounds, is making the Pacquiao leap to 147, to meet the challenge of Mayweather. Although there were words spoken about a possible catchweight of 143-144, it seems the Mayweather camp pushed for the fight to be made at 147.

At a glance, Mayweather is the bigger and faster man. Being a natural welterweight, he carries power that can bother any lightweight. Marquez, losing in size and possibly speed, has good power, and technical skills that can likely match those of the bigger Mayweather. In many ways, this fight is Mayweather's test if he can handle someone who can handle Manny Pacquiao, even if Manny has drastically improved like no other boxer has since he last fought Marquez.

Although both fighters are defensive, Mayweather has the tendency to run. This can make this a potentially boring match up. At the same time, for someone to win, someone has to make a move, and for that, I would say Marquez would make the first moves. I can see from the beginning, Marquez winning the early rounds, countering Mayweather's jabs, and executing his gameplan well.

Both fighters also are slow starters, but I believe in one factor for Marquez's possible victory, heart. Marquez survived through an onslaught of attacks from Pacquiao in his fights with him, being able to leave those two bouts behind with a draw and a loss. If Marquez were to pull off an upset, it would be because he would carry into the fight with the heart he brought with himself into the Pacquiao bouts.

Mayweather is a bigger waiter than Marquez, and will wait for Marquez to tire and make mistakes. Mayweather will and always tends to go into the middle rounds with nearly perfect defenses. Being a quick study himself, he places his punches quickly and accurately.

Here is my analysis:

Round 1:
Marquez will start the pressure, as Mayweather will try to land a few jabs, only to get thrown off by Marquez's quickly timed counterpunches. I can see Marquez edging out Mayweather for this round. 10-9 Marquez

Round 2:
Again, Marquez will start to pressure Mayweather again, but Mayweather will find his jab landing more, and will start to land left hooks and straight right hands. Marquez will start to walk into shots, not quite so ready for the welterweight power, gets knocked down, but not hurt.
19-18 Mayweather

Round 3:
Mayweather will try to pressure a little this round, because Marquez is obviously backing off a little due to the round 2 knockdown, and is studying Mayweather's game. Mayweather throws a swift left hook, only miss and be caught with a counter straight right hand, followed by a left hook that throws him off balance. Seeing this chance, Marquez rallies, and the bell rings. A surprised Mayweather tries to smile off what just happened.
28-28 Tie

Round 4:
Marquez steps backward this round, to let Mayweather apply the pressure, and tries to use the same strategy as last round. This time around though, Floyd is dodging punches and covering up well. Floyd is landing clean punches repeatedly, until Marquez finds an opening again, and knocks Floyd off balance. Seizing the opportunity, Marquez rallies, only to get caught by a counter left hook that knocks him down again. Marquez gets up, but gets caught again by a straight right hand, and hits the canvas once more. Marquez doesn't make the count and cornerman Nacho Beristain throws in the towel.

Winner: Floyd Mayweather

While I see Floyd winning, I dont totally dismiss Marquez, he has the heart factor, that will shine July 18th.

Chance of winning? Mayweather has a 65% chance and Marquez has a 35% chance. Odds in Mayweather's favor, but this is boxing, who knows what will happen. This fight has a lot of potential to go the distance. Marquez may surprise the world, even if he has the disadvantage in almost every area. Nacho Beristain has Marquez doing weight lifting, moving boulders, heavy rocks, sounds like Rocky style training.

Maybe after some episodes of Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and some more analyzing, I will have another version of this.

JP Out.

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